Things you should know:
- Visit the tutorials! (See the welcome screen after logging in, or go to http://help.daggre.org.) Look around.
- Note: The previous conditional questions were locked when switching to combo. The new way to edit conditionals is to edit the target after assuming the condition. For example, if the old question pair was, “If A, will B happen?” and “If not A, will B happen?”, you would now edit B assuming A. In steps:
- Select the target question (B).
- Click “Show Related Questions”
- Put (A) in the Current Assumptions Box.
- Assume A is True (or False).
- Edit B.
- We already did this to initialize the corresponding new-style conditional probabilities to the current values from the old ones.
- Your assets in the old-style conditionals are temporarily locked as well. We should be able to release them soon. In the worst case, they will release when the question resolves. If this causes hardship, let us know.
- The combo website is currently a little slower than the old flat one. It will probably take us a couple of weeks of tuning to get all response times under 3 seconds again. In the meantime, please be patient. Most are now 5-10s, sometimes longer. Remember, it’s doing a lot more updating than the old site.
- We will be posting several other conditional types of questions on the market in the near future, such as “Will A happen if B happens or if C happens or if D happens?” This is just an example. By posting 4 separate questions instead of 1, you will be able to make your own prediction and investments using the new features the combo market brings.
- We need your participation! The new features allow you to make your own predictions given your own assumptions! But don’t neglect just making “plain” unconditional predictions too.
- We are looking for your feedbackwith respect to any issues or bugs you encounter and also how you like the new combo market!
- Here’s a bug! The graph works fine with assumptions, but with no assumptions set, it doesn’t match the estimates. It’s showing the raw edit history, regardless of assumptions. That’s getting fixed soon!
- Software Update This Week: Combo! (daggre.org)
- Analysis Training Workshop Update (daggre.org)
- Forecasting the US Elections (daggre.org)
- Conditional Reasoning (daggre.org)