FARC group and the Colombian government have begun historic negotiations in Oslo today: BBC. These negotiations are a first in more than a decade. FARC is the oldest and largest guerrilla group in Colombia. The purpose of these negotiations is to end decades of conflict.

Analysis

We closed question 185 with a Brier Score of 0.77:

The Brier Score (Brier 1950) is a measurement of the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. As a distance metric, lower is the better.  The Brier Score ranges from 0..2, and is the sum of the squared differences between the forecast and the outcome averaged over the number of forecasts.  On a binary (Yes/No) question, simply guessing 50% all the time yields a “no courage” score of 0.5.  We want to be firmly below 0.1.

In this case, the market did not perform very well. We are wondering why the market has been skeptical about the possibility of peace in this country.