Post-mortem analysis on Jordan’s Prime Minister

Question #224 on the DAGGRE site resolved as “yes,” giving another surprise to many forecasters who gave a low probability for the question. Our Brier score, which refers to the distance between our forecast and the true answer, was 1.2. The Brier score ranges from 0..2, with perfect predictions getting 0, while a coin toss gets 0.5. This should prompt us to look back and see what we might have missed.

There were quite a few indicators available to forecasters before October 10 that Fayez Tarawneh would cease to be Prime Minister of Jordan. Going back to September 8, there were already reports of widespread distrust of the transitional government by the Jordanian people.  Rising gasoline prices led to widespread protests demanding resignations from the Prime Minister and his cabinet. The lower house of parliament also signed a motion of no confidence against Tarawneh’s government.

An article from The Guardian on October 4 led with a sub-heading, “King Abdullah set to appoint fifth prime minister since start of Arab spring as opposition prepares for protest.” The article goes on to discuss how the current Parliament was being dissolved and even states that Tarawneh was only a “stopgap” for the rapidly evolving government. Jordan’s constitution states that the cabinet must resign within a week of parliament’s dissolution.

BBC News corroborated reports of Jordan’s dissolved parliament. The article notes that King Abdullah has made changes to the government in the past when the Jordanian people express discontent. Elections for a new government were expected to be set before the end of the year.