Israel elections have been set for the date of January 22, 2013: Reuters. The question we had on the market with respect to the elections in Israel described the dissolution of the Parliament as a potential event that would trigger early elections. Yet our market did not foresee this dissolution to happen before the deadline of November.
We closed question #266 with a Brier Score of 0.63:
The Brier Score (Brier 1950) is a measurement of the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. As a distance metric, lower is the better. The Brier Score ranges from 0..2, and is the sum of the squared differences between the forecast and the outcome averaged over the number of forecasts. On a binary (Yes/No) question, simply guessing 50% all the time yields a “no courage” score of 0.5. We want to be firmly below 0.1.
In this case, the market did not perform very well. From the comments of our participants, we think that the reason for this high Brier Score stems from the instability in the area, the international political issues with Iran and from internal budget disputes.
Here are the evolution of the market and some comments from the participants:
Netanyahu has announced early elections – http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/netanyahu-announces-early-elections-1.468944 – So we now have “announced intentions by government figures without dissolution of parliament and the legal establishment of an election date”, but we’ll have to wait for the official dissolution of parliament when it reconvenes on October 15 to officially resolve the question.
As of today http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20121009/ml-israel-politics/. Some sort of announcement is planned later today.
“Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has already made a final decision to seek a February 12 election rather than try to pass the 2013 state budget, politicians who spoke to Netanyahu said on Thursday.” – http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=286702 and http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2012/10/05/Report-Netanyahu-to-seek-early-election/UPI-75321349436302/
“Coalition chairman Ze’ev Elkin (Likud) said he considered early elections inevitable, because none of the Likud’s coalition partners appeared ready to compromise.” – http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=287048
“Netanyahu is having trouble getting the 2013 budget approved, which could serve as a trigger for early elections.” – http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/international/08-Oct-2012/hyperinflation-stalks-iran-israel-wavers
“Prime Minister’s Office says: Netanyahu is bent on passing the national budget for 2013 and holding elections on their scheduled date • No official agreement yet on budget by coalition partners.” – http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=5866
Netanyahu admits possibility of early elections – http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=284836
Just can;t see an election date established, the unrest in this area is constantly growing.
‘Asked if elections will be called early, Yuval Steinitz replied: “I don’t know. 50/50 percent.”‘ – http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/news/international/Israels_budget_a_political_hot_potato.html?cid=33489362
I don’t believe this will happen before November, as Iran is on the radar and a strike may be imminent before the US presidential election, according to David Rubin an Israeli terrorism expert.
It seems like the momentum is going this way….
We are looking forward for your comments on why the early elections in Israel took us by surprise. We also have more questions on Israel on the market, such as #232 or on Iran issues, such as #236 and #276.