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A court in Moscow has suspended the 2 year jail term for one of the 3 Pussy Riot women. The women were convicted in August for protesting against Kremlin: BBC.

We closed question 289 with a Brier Score of 1.12.

The Brier Score is the measurement we use for forecasting accuracy and the closer to zero, the better the forecasting. In this case, the market did not perform very well. The inconsistencies in estimations throughout the question seem to stem from a broader view of the politics and legal system in Russia.

Here are some of our users comments:

There may be the possibility of some reduction of the sentence because of the public outcry, but I don’t think the sentence will be nullified. They will be made an example of, but I highly doubt anything will happen before December. The wheels of justice turn mighty slowly in Putin’s world.

I agree with jr, although they are musicians the laws in Russia are still very harsh in relation to those who are critical of their laws.

That being said, Moscow Khamovnichesky District Court press secretary Darya Lyakh did announce that there is an appeal hearing on October 1, 2012 at 11:00am, so I suppose we’ll see. (http://freepussyriot.org/news/moscow-city-court-hear-appeal-against-pussy-riot-sentence-october-1st)

I don’t believe that there is a likelihood of the sentence being reduced. Putin and his regime have been very strict about the different protest laws and because Pussy Riot ignored many of these laws, I find that if they are reduced (or nullified/suspended) that this will encourage other.
We have other questions on Russia on the market, such as 135, and on ruling overturn, such as 292.