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The Jordan’s king appointed a new prime-minister today, Abdullah Ensour. He replaces Fayez Tarawneh, who resigned as it was required by the king’s constitutional changes. The king has gradually given up some of his powers after months of protests, but he still retains power over the government: AFP.

We closed question 224 with a Brier Score of 1.2.

The Brier Score measures forecasting accuracy and the closer to zero, the better the accuracy. In this case, the market did not perform very well. The status quo seems to have been expected (no change in government yet), due to the upcoming elections in Jordan.

Here is a snapshot from the market and some comments from the participants:

Parliament was dissolved, and pressure is growing on the monarchy for reforms. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tarawneh go sometime soon.

S. as you have probadly noticed the unrest in those regoins brings up so much uncertainty, this may be in the air as well.

“Jordanian Prime Minister Fayez Al-Tarawneh said, Thursday, that parliamentary elections will be held by the end of the year” – http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/Flash.aspx/246549

Given the average time in office of Jordanian Prime Ministers, I think it’s more likely than not that the current one will leave before the year is out.
We have more questions on the market regarding changes of regime power in the Middle East, such as 218 or 266.