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UNHCR reports more than 250,000 refugees in Syria as of today. Turkey absorbs most of the Syrian refugees (almost 100,000), then Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq.

We closed question #268 on the market with a Brier Score of 0.051.

Here are some of our participants comments:

“The UN refugee agency announced Tuesday that the number of Syrians registered or awaiting registration as refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq has passed 300,000” – http://www.unhcr.org/506ab7259.html – It won’t take long for the number registered to hit 250k.

My mistake; still short by 15,000. But estimates in the past 2 weeks have put at 250,000 at least.

Confirmed by the UNHCR: Article on foreignpolicy.com http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/09/27/putting_syria_back_together_again

Close reading of the official page shows they already acknowledge an extra 55K people (+9,854 in Jordan w/appointments, +26,562 in Jordan awaiting, and +20,092 in Lebanon). And http://www.unhcr.org/504eff8a9.html says over 250,000. Looks like we’re just waiting for confirmation.

The official site <a href=”http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php”>http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php</a&gt; is just below 200K this morning. If figures in @wdefeo’s link are accurate, then there is some delay in updating the website, and good job spotting leading indicators. I only hope the aid organizations have properly forecast their needs and can prepare/adapt.

The link is more focused on some of the recent violence of the last few days, but also has the most accurate count on refugees. There are, by this count, 246,000. http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/07/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html

188k, 66k in the last month.

174k, 54k in the last month.

Over 167k now: http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php At the current rate of growth (51k in the last month) it will break 250k in less than 2 months.

It’s gone up by 100,000 in 4 months to >135,000, so if current trends continue there’s a good chance it will break 250k.

We have more questions on Syria on the market: Check out questions 139, 218, 237 and 242!