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As Lonely Planet describes, “the brash political style” of Hugo Chavez is here to stay. The famous president, who is sometimes considered a touristic attraction himself, won the re-elections on Sunday: Reuters.

We closed question no. 169 today with a Brier Score of 0.0521. The market performed well, considering the drop in estimation due to rumors of illness and death.

Here are some of our participants’ comments:

“Many have analyzed alternate outcomes come October 7, as there’s still a statistical dead-heat race between the two candidates.” – http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2012/09/27/venezuela%E2%80%99s-future-crosshairs

In a dictatorship, do we believe that a challenger with 50.1% of the vote will win? Based on Chavez control of government leadership, there is risk of gamed election results. If the polls show a tie, this tips the scales in Chavez’s favor. The risk of his death before October 7th is reduced, now that he only has to last another 2 weeks.

“While some observers see the race as roughly tied, others say Capriles could win” … “Chavez’s support is capped at 48% of the vote.” – http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/091712-626037-venezuela-polls-show-anti-chavez-election-momentum.htm

“As it stands the race is getting closer.” … “If this trend continues, then Capriles will be in a position to close the gap. Furthermore, the huge explosion at Venezuela’s largest oil refinery (Amuay) killing 48 people could impact the race.” – http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/Latin-America-Monitor/2012/0831/Venezuelan-pollsters-weigh-in-on-Chavez-vs.-Capriles-battle-for-president

If Chavez dies or resigns before 7 October, there’s a non-zero chance that his chosen successor may be elected. I would put the chance of that at more than 1% for sure: there’s a lot of uncertainty about what could happen in the next 3 and a half months.

read somewhere he might be a goner within 2 months…

Chavez’s health is going to play a big factor in this election, for sure.

Does he have to be alive to be elected? Dying shortly before the election could potentially help his chances of winning the election. Not of serving the term, certainly, but the question asks about election.

I don’t see Chavez living until October.

99% is SOO strong you guys. Really? What is Chavez dies of natural causes? What if there’s a once in a century scandal?

It looks like Chavez is solidly in the lead. The media can talk about “undecided” voters all it wants, but Chavez has a strong history of staying popular with voters, whether that popularity is legitimate or by means of election fraud. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/27/us-venezuela-election-idUSBRE82Q0V520120327

That is why “Other” is at 0%!!!

Hugo Chavez is in the lead right now in recent polls at 56%. The opposing candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski is gaining monentum in the dissenters of the Chavez party but Chavez has had the seat of the presidency for 13 years. Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/11/us-venezuela-election-chavez-idUSBRE82A07720120311

This will be very interesting to see how it turns out given Chavez’s health and the “undecided” votes.

Received a boost with his latest surgery. Venezuelans will again re-elect their “beloved” leader.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2012/0228/Chavez-vs.-Capriles-Stark-choice-for-Venezuela-s-independent-voters According to this, Chavez leads Capriles by 20 points. I’m going to move the line accordingly.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/28/us-venezuela-chavez-idUSTRE81R12520120228 Trying to figure out if Chavez is really going to last this long…he did make it through a surgery today.

Chavez may die and get replaced by another candidate. In fact, he needs to return to Cuba soon for additional treatment. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204909104577237772371582312.html)

Why is “other” an option? I’m pretty sure the only candidates in the running now are Chavez and the opposition leader Capriles Radonski.

 
We had other Venezuela questions on the market before. Right from the launch of the market a year ago, we have forecasted some possible changes of political power in Venezuela.