The food prices saw an increase of 1.4% in September compared to August, in the FAO price index. This price increase was announced today by FAO. We closed question #295 with option b (less than 3%) and a Brier Score of 1.33:
On another hand, Somalia’s town of Kismayo was taken over by the governmental forces from Somalia and African Union: BBC. We closed question #273 with a Brier Score of 0.275.
Take a look at other questions on Somalia we have on the market, such as #240 and 241, as well as the questions with respect to global prices such as gold (question #144).
FAO forecast not so good. A “know nothing” forecast giving 20% to each option would have a Brier Score of only 0.80. A participant comment on 25-Sep pegged “<35%" as the most likely single option:
What did we miss?