Tags
Brier score, estimates, Forecasting, IFPs, Questions, resolutions
Sudan and South Sudan reached a partial agreement in Addis Ababa. The agreement includes the oil exports from Sudan, the demilitarized zone and the principle of border demarcation. The agreement does not include the status of the disputed areas along the border, such as Abyei. The question with respect to border agreement lived very shortly on the market and we closed it with the Brier Score 0.73.
The market briefly pulled the estimates towards a “no” resolution, but recovered and closed at 95%.
This was probably the shortest question we ever had on the market. Thank you to those of you who invested in it from the beginning!
The recovery (me moving it from ~35% to 95% only came after I saw news that they’d reached an agreement. We didn’t predict this one very well.
Agreed. And if IARPA resolves as of the official announcement rather than the formal signing, our Brier Score will be worse than 0.73, since the last edit won’t count.
Do you guys ever go back and reverse trades that come in after the official resolve time?
We haven’t yet. It’s better to keep the incentives clean — a big last-minute change just might help us, so we don’t want to discourage it. And we should have the incentive to freeze questions ASAP. (Questions that just “expire” automatically freeze.)