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Spot Analysis: Syrian Conflict (Q 183)

*Disclaimer* This is a spot analysis performed by interns at Mercyhurst University and is not an official opinion of any institution or sponsor.  Spot analyses will be issued periodically by Mercyhurst interns assigned to the DAGGRE Project.

 

Will a foreign or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter Syria between March 6, 2012 and December 31, 2012?

Research points:

  • Treatment of the rebels by al-Assad
  • Support of al-Assad by Russia and China
  • Negotiations between US/UN and Russia/China
  • Degree of fighting within Syria

Significance: This topic is fundamentally important to not only the United States but to the United Nations as well.  The Arab Spring, which erupted in early to middle 2011, is a staple in world history as a large scale, multinational uprising against tyrannical rule.  Syria is only a part of it, but their part is significant.

Background:  The country’s leader, Bashar al-Assad, has been in office since 2000, and has taken an active stance putting an end to rebellion within Syria.  Unfortunately, Assad has resorted to using deadly force to combat the rebels, committing egregious crimes against humanity.  This has led to an influx of refugees and political defectors to bordering countries.  The UN and the US appear to be avoiding military involvement until absolutely necessary.  The UN cease-fire initiatives have failed, and the US itself is trying to implement a no fly zone to help resolve the conflict.

The conflict has also led to UN talks with Russia and China, both of whom voted against the UN resolution for Syria in July that threatened Syrian authorities with sanctions if they did not halt violence within the country.  Russia supports the Assad regime; however Putin condemns its use of deadly violence to stop the rebellion.  Whether or not this conflict will likely increase US-Russian tensions is a questions of its own.

*Disclaimer* This is a spot analysis performed by interns at Mercyhurst University and is not an official opinion of any institution or sponsor.  Spot analyses will be issued periodically by Mercyhurst interns assigned to the DAGGRE Project.