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Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Board of Governo...

Two conditional questions were voided because their conditions did not obtain:

  • Q.285: _IF_, before 31 December 2012, the Federal Reserve Board does not officially announce QE3, _WILL_ the Yuan to Dollar exchange rateon 31 December 2012 be more than 5% different than the 31 August 2012 exchange rate?
    • The Fed just announced QE3.  Please edit Q.284 instead.
  • Q.240: If Sharif Sheikh Ahmed wins re-election as President of Somalia, will al-Shabaabcommence official talks with the Somali government before 1 January 2013?
    • Ahmed did not win.  Please edit Q.241 instead.

Each condition was “voided” by reversing all the trades (going backwards in time), refunding the participants and bringing the probabilities back to 50/50.  The questions are now frozen.We will leave them visible for a short time so participants can inspect the edit history if they wish.

In the combinatorial system, the conditions will be separate but related questions.  Today I am inviting two users to beta-test that system.  If you would like to be included, post a comment, or email daggre at c4i*gmu*edu.