Tags
Africa, Brier score, elections, Libya, Middle East, resolutions
So question 226 concerning the election time of the Libya Prime Minister (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19581422) was resolved yesterday as the September option (green line below). While forecasters eventually converged on the right solution, it wasn’t an obvious case. The estimated Brier score on this question is 0.4108 (ignore the score on the figure).
If you like Libya questions consider question 280, and we currently have 6 live questions in the Elections category (use the category search feature in the upper left corner, just above the listing of questions).
As always, thanks for forecasting!
Related articles
- Libya elects Prime Minister in September (daggre.org)
- Former UAHuntsville Professor Is Libya’s New Prime Minister (whnt.com)
- Meet Libya’s new Prime Minister: Mustafa Abu Shagour,… (shortformblog.com)
This was actually an “ordered” question, so we got credit for putting more probability on nearby options. The official Brier Score was 0.119, and we came in first, 51% better than the ULinOP benchmark. Nicely done.