According to two University of Colorado professors, Mitt Romney is predicted to be the next President of the United States. Their prediction model was created to forecast the winner of the Electoral College. While the prediction model correctly predicted the winner of each election since 1980, the professors caution that this does not mean that it will work this time.
The model looks at economic indicators from all 50 states to predict the winner of the race, and currently Romney leads Obama by 102 electoral votes. Many of these electoral votes come from swing states, which the model forecasts will all resolve in favor of the Republican candidate. This model is the only of its kind to include multiple state level measures of economic conditions, including national unemployment and per capita income.
Other polls monitoring the race predict a closer race, and in many cases, forecast a victory for President Obama. Nonetheless, the article presents a perspective from a prediction model that has had some success in the past. Share your thoughts on these models in the comments and let us know about other models you’ve found!