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Map of Syria with Aleppo highlighted

Map of Syria with Aleppo highlighted (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

We have seven new IARPA questions on the market!  The topics are:

  • Israeli elections date
  • Aleppo‘s fate in the Syrian conflict (ordered/multi-choice)
  • The number of Syrian conflict refugees reported by the UNHCR
  • Kuwaiti parliamentary elections date
  • Durability of the UK Coalition government
  • Korean bilateral talks (CONDITIONAL — Q.217 & Q.272)

Conditional questions are formulated as “If A happens by this date, then…” and “If A does not happen by this date, then…”. Therefore these questions come in pairs and add one more layer of judgement and interpretation to forecasting.

Note that refugee distributions can be power-law distributed.  This iRevolution blog article looks at a FlowMinder study on predicting refugee flow from disasters, and may have some useful ideas.

We are looking forward for your participation and comments!  Remember, these are IARPA questions so we’re scored on them.