We have seven new IARPA questions on the market! The topics are:
- Israeli elections date
- Aleppo‘s fate in the Syrian conflict (ordered/multi-choice)
- The number of Syrian conflict refugees reported by the UNHCR
- Kuwaiti parliamentary elections date
- Durability of the UK Coalition government
- Korean bilateral talks (CONDITIONAL — Q.217 & Q.272)
Conditional questions are formulated as “If A happens by this date, then…” and “If A does not happen by this date, then…”. Therefore these questions come in pairs and add one more layer of judgement and interpretation to forecasting.
We are looking forward for your participation and comments! Remember, these are IARPA questions so we’re scored on them.
- Syrian refugees near 150000 as exodus grows: UN – Reuters (reuters.com)
- Syrian Soldiers Battle Rebel Forces as U.S. Warns of Terrorism (bloomberg.com)
- Aleppo cleared of terrorists (english.ruvr.ru)
- Aleppo: Conflicting stories and the truth (english.pravda.ru)
- Syrian Fight Uproots 1.5 Million as Iran Urges Cease-Fire (bloomberg.com)
- Syrian refugees take to begging on Hamra street (dailystar.com.lb)
- New questions on the market! (daggre.org)