This weekend we closed two internal questions, one on Michael Phelps and one on Romanian gymnastics. The question on Michael Phelps (206) asked whether he would win more than 4 gold medals at the London Olympics and it is resolved as “No”. The question on Romanian gymnastics (200) asked whether the Romanian team would win any gold medals and it is resolved as “Yes” based on the vaulting competition. Here are the Brier Scores:
We did better on the Phelps question than on the Romanian gymnastics one. We are wondering whether the disbelief in Romanian gold came from a misunderstanding of the question or from the difficulty/degree of uncertainty of the question. Romania has always done well in gymnastics at the Olympics.
On another hand, with respect to the Phelps question, we are wondering whether the outcome was easier to predict based on the increased media coverage of the athlete during this past year.
Therefore we are looking forward for your comments and feedback, as usual!