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This weekend we closed Question 141 on the exchange rate between the euro and the Australian dollar. This was apparently a difficult question, as many of our participants thought that the euro will not fall below 1.2 Australian dollars too soon. The question also resolved sooner than the resolution deadline, which was the end of this year. Here is the Brier Score:
It seems that most of our questions related to the eurozone and the European Union are more difficult to forecast. We are looking forward for your comments on all difficulties you are encountering with respect to European Union topics!
What factors did people use in making their forecasts? Were we right to lower the chances from April – June? (Was the recent dip towards AU$1.2 unexpected in April/May?) Who pushed chances higher vs lower — comments?
Comment stream from the market:
Well, its at 1.1997 now according to http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-aud
Mr — 3 days ago
This will happen, at the latest the next time the eurozone has a meeting that fails to produce any tangible results.
Mr — 4 days ago
1.2058 as of Jul 6th, waiting for another european shoe to drop
ya — 6 days ago
It doesn’t make a lot of sense that this one was showing lower than the EUR USD one, when the EUR is worth $1.26 USD but only $1.24 AUD. I still think both are unlikely, though.
sc — 3 weeks ago
So: This is the development for the last 120 days: http://www.x-rates.com/d/AUD/EUR/graph120.html
ha — 2 months ago
The Australian economy still looks strong, as they have kept their interest rates higher to support savers, unlike the fools in the US and EU.
Be — 3 months ago
I very much doubdt it will drop below 1.20
na — 4 months ago
It may just be me but it appears the Edit History for this entry is messed up, and shows a giant green triangle taking up over half of the graph.
Dy — 5 months ago
Well, it’s at $1.22 now, and the situation in Europe doesn’t look as though it’s about to bounce back before it dips below $1.20.
Pr — 5 months ago
Why is the link in the description link to a EUR – USD exchange screen, and not EUR – AUD?
Je — 5 months ago
Continued strong demand for Australia’s commodities will see their currency appreciate. Also, the Euro could see some negative shocks due to the ongoing political morass. I think the odds are high.
da — 5 months ago