Starting today, we have 6 new questions on the market, with topics ranging from elections to UN policies. These questions add a variety of new countries, such as Mali, Hungary, Jordan and Sierra Leone. Check out the following questions that are now uploaded on the market:
| When will Viktor Orbán resign or otherwise vacate the office of Prime Minister of Hungary? |
| Will Raja Pervez Ashraf resign or otherwise vacate the office of Prime Minister of Pakistan before 1 April 2013? |
| Will the UN Security Council pass a new resolution before 1 April 2013 that supports military intervention* in Mali? |
| Will Libya commence legislative elections before 8 July 2012? |
| Will Fayez al-Tarawneh resign or otherwise vacate the office of Prime Minister of Jordan before 1 January 2013? |
| Who will win Sierra Leone’s next Presidential election? |
The question on Libya is very short term and the question on Hungary is temporally ordinal. Therefore there is added variety not only in geography, but also in the resolution deadlines. We are looking forward for your trades and comments.
Happy trading everyone!
Great to see the new questions, and the time variety!
How does the system deal with temporally ordinal questions once the deadline for the first option has passed? Does the question get partially resolved and the number of choices reduced? If I lower the estimate of one of the remaining options, will the percentages get partially redistributed onto the already-expired option? In that case, that would introduce a trading strategy for eagle-eyed players to watch those questions and keep pushing the already-expired options back down to 1% when they get bumped up (and maybe even figuring out ways to move the other options’ percentages in such a way as to drive the expired option’s % down below 1%).
IM IN THE BLACK FINALLY.
The new system finally let me cancel some of these old estimates I could never cancel out of before.
@Scott: We’re glad to have ordinal questions too. The system will soon support partial resolution (resolving options akin to resolving questions). In the meantime we may have to rely on participants. Effort is focused on the Markov engine.
@RB9: Yay! Thanks for hanging in there!