First, we want to thank you again for a great first year. We learned a lot and hope you did as well. As May came to a close and June started, we resolved 7 questions. Six of the seven questions were
MITRE IARPA-issued questions, and one was an internal question (Q-ID 44, concerning Mubarak). Reflecting on all questions up until this point, we are able to take stock on how the market performed on DAGGRE questions versus MITRE IARPA questions, and it turns out the average performances on the respective sets of questions are surprisingly close (only including binary questions). In fact, they’re exact within 3 decimal places (0.2566 vs. 0.2562). So here’s to consistency!!
We had a large surge in participation at the start of February, and this surge sustained our improved performance over the last four months. That said, as questions resolved faster than new ones were posted (no new
MITRE IARPA questions in the past month), and the weather warmed up, we have noticed a somewhat predictable drop in participation. We can see this drop over the last three weeks below in the number of trades per day and the number of trades per question and the number of edited questions.
We’re not too worried (yet) about the drop in activity, as it coincides with fewer questions. With that in mind, we’re please to unveil the first our new summer collection of forecasting questions:
- Will the iPhone 5 be released by Apple before June 30, 2012?
- Will the USA take first place in total medal count in the 2012 London Olympics?
- Will Katy Perry get engaged before December 31, 2012?
- Will a US golfer win the 2012 US open golf tournament?
- Will Michael Phelps win more than 4 gold medals at the London 2012 Olympics?
- Will Iceland start the Accession negotiations with EU before December 31, 2012?
- Will Greece give up the name dispute with Macedonia before December 31, 2012?
- Will Bosnia and Hertzegovina start the Accession negotiations with EU before December 31, 2012?
- Will Macedonia start the Accesion negotiations with EU before December 31, 2012?
We hope you are interested by these questions, and will continue to roll out new questions each month!