Europe Brent crude FOB spot prices have remained well below $150, meaning that the answer to question #140 is no.

When this question was first posted, Iran had recently threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to economic sanctions limiting Iranian oil exports.  There was speculation that if Iran was successful in this action, that oil prices would skyrocket, rising above $150.  An international naval force was quickly assembled near the strait, both to discourage Iran from following through on the threat and to prepare to quickly reopen the strait in the event that Iran did take action.  Economic sanctions against Iran continue to be enforced, but Iran has not yet made a move to close the strait.

DAGGRE’s collective wisdom worked well to correctly predict that this chain of events had a low probability of coming to fruition.  Throughout the question’s activity, most predictions were under 20%, correctly indicating that it was unlikely that Iran could or would cause oil prices to rise so high.  Good job!

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