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3 IFPs resolved. Long live the status quo.

We may re-post some of these with a later resolution date.

Q.165	IFPID #1082 - William Ruto  - is resolved as "b" / "no"
Q.166	IFPID #1083 - Marine Le Pen  - is resolved as "b" / "no"
Q.171	IFPID #1086 - Mohamed Waheed Hassan Manik  - is resolved as "b" / "no"

 

Q.165 William Ruto:

 

Comments

Too bad this deadline is so soon! Looks like Ruto dropping out might still be likely.

Ro — last week

http://allafrica.com/stories/201203230089.html Three MPs who are very close to Ruto separately confirmed that there is a plan to back Mudavadi. “We are almost certain that Ruto and Uhuru may not be in the ballot. We have no other candidate other than Mudavadi and it will not matter which party he will be in,” said one MP.

Ro — last week

An opinion poll conducted two weeks ago showed that Kenya is split down the middle on whether Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto should be allowed to stand for president. Nationally 48 per cent wanted Uhuru Kenyatta to run for the presidency and 47 per cent thought William Ruto should run. http://www.the-star.co.ke/national/national/63402-kenya-split-over-ruto-and-uhuru-candidacyThat being said, most of the polls released are so biased that the attempt is to drive public opinion rather than reflect it.

Ka — last month

Q.166 Marine Le Pen

Comments

If you know anything about French politics, you would know that the Front National regularly gets over 15% of the votes in the first round of voting – and not just “protest” votes. Just before she got her 500 signatures, all major candidates (Sarkozy, Hollande, Bayrou) have clearly stated that it would be a travesty if the FN were absent. The only way she would be absent from the first round now would be if she died or committed a criminal offence significant enough to render he ineligible.

da — 2 weeks ago

She got the signatures and made it onto the ballot. Little chance she drops out before the deadline now.

QB — 4 weeks ago

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17296773 still about 30 signatures short…but this article indicates it could be partly intentional drama. she doesn’t seem likely to drop out unless she can’t get the required signature count.

Ro — last month

here’s the latest – http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_03_02/67287189/

QB — last month

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2012 According to all these polls, LePen is behind in every single runoff poll and the main poll. Seems much more likely than 4% she’d drop out. Raising this as a result!

Ro — last month

Q.171 Mohamed Waheed Hassan Manik:

Comments

How will he be made to resign since Nasheed said he was ousted by a coup and at gunpoint? Will it be by choice or force?

Ra — last month

He may be willing to step down early and have new elections, but he seems disinclined to do so in such a short time frame.

te — last month