DAGGREISTAS!

Y'all Rock! 24 official questions resolved in the last week – that's half the total – and according to the preliminary numbers from IARPA, we're in 1st place on those questions, and 65% better than baseline! Even counting all data from December (which includes some software-induced disasters), we're 17% better than the baseline, and ranked 2nd out of 6. Looking at just the Feb-Apr3 reports, we're 50% better than baseline, and still 2nd out of 6.

				Baseline		DAGGRE				PDM	Rank
All Data Average:				0.375	0.343	0.315	0.225	0.364	0.318	17%	2
w/o MultiChoice:				0.350	0.324	0.233	0.190	0.340	0.291	40%	2
Feb. Rpt. Average:				0.222	0.208	0.093	0.079	0.274	0.137	82%	2
Mar. Rpt. Average:				0.484	0.480	0.424	0.401	0.528	0.444	13%	2
Apr.3 Rpt. Average:				0.351	0.307	0.179	0.188	0.304	0.275	65%	1
Feb-Mar-Apr3 Average:				0.355	0.324	0.213	0.211	0.344	0.285	50%	2

  All teams (including us) are checking the numbers, so this result could change, but wow! Keep it up!   Resolutions are listed below. They include 10 unofficial (DAGGRE-only) questions. We expect another 7 questions to resolve later this week. We'll post all these results to the blog over the next week or so.   New Engine: Around April 13 we plan to replace the core calculation engine with a faster, more robust one. We will replay the entire trade history from scratch and thereby fix several scoring issues that have accumulated. Scores will change some. Stay tuned.  

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DAGGRE Questions Resolving by early April


Q.140    IFPID #1062 - Europe Brent Crude FOB - is resolved as "b" / "no" Q.182    IFPID #1097 – Tunisia State of Emergency – is resolved as “a” / “yes”

This was a very close thing only announced on the day of. IARPA delayed resolution until they could confirm in-country news sources, and verify that it met the US timezone deadline.

Q.186    IFPID #1101 - Laurent Lamothe - is resolved as "b" / "No, but he will remain the nominee"

The following IARPA Test & Evaluation (T&E) all resolved “no”:

Q.107    IFPID #1035 - UNSC Iran Resolution

Q.123    IFPID #1045 - Saif Gaddafi Trial

Q.133    IFPID #1055 - North Korea Nuclear device

Q.136    IFPID #1058 - Egypt Israel Peace Treaty

Q.137    IFPID #1059 - Kim Jong-un

Q.147    IFPID #1063 - Taliban Negotiations

Q.148    IFPID #1064 - Yousaf Raza Gillani

Q.151    IFPID #1067 - Traian Basescu

Q.152    IFPID #1068 - UNSC Syria Resolution

Q.153    IFPID #1069 - South Korea Iran Oil

Q.155    IFPID #1071 - Iran U.S. nuclear talks

Q.157    IFPID #1073 - Hungary IMF Loan

Q.160    IFPID #1076 - Tareq al-Hashemi

Q.170    IFPID #1085 - UNSC Haiti Force Reduction

Q.173    IFPID #1088 - Japan Parliamentary Elections

Q.176    IFPID #1091 - Japan S&P downgrade

Q.177    IFPID #1092 - Myanmar Political Prisoners

Q.181    IFPID #1096 - Syrian Civil War

Q.184    IFPID #1099 - Al-Saadi Gaddafi Extradition

Q.189    IFPID #1103 - Sudan Oil Transit Fees

Q.190    IFPID #1104 - Jaar Zinjibar

The following DAGGRE questions all resolved “yes”:

Q.46    Will Hugo Chavez still hold the title President of Venezuela as of 1 April 2012?

The following DAGGRE questions all resolved “no”:

Q.6    Will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 2 new actual or suspected cases of the Ebola virus anywhere in the world between 1 August 2011 and 1 April 2012?

Q.13    Before 1 April 2012, will either the Knesset or the Israeli president officially call for a new national election for Israel’s Knesset?

Q.41    Will the Nikkei 225 index finish trading on 1 April 2012 at or above 11,000?

Q.45    Will Iran successfully detonate a nuclear weapon, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater, before 1 April 2012?

Q.47    Will at least one country newly and officially declare that they possess nuclear weapons before 1 April 2012?

Q.48    Will China conduct an overt [previously announced] military or naval exercise in the South China Sea at any point between 1 September 2011 and 1 April 2012?

Q.50    Will there be an ‘authorized strength’ of more than 11000 military and civilian police personnel as part of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) as of 1 April 2012?

Q.65    Will the North Korean (DPRK) military be reported as occupying, invading, or firing weapons on South Korean troops, citizens, or territory at any point before 1 April 2012?

Q.145    Will Iran successfully test-fire a ballistic missile between 13 January 2012 and 1 April 2012?