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DAGGREISTAS!

Y'all Rock! 24 official questions resolved in the last week – that's half the total – and according to the preliminary numbers from IARPA, we're in 1st place on those questions, and 65% better than baseline! Even counting all data from December (which includes some software-induced disasters), we're 17% better than the baseline, and ranked 2nd out of 6. Looking at just the Feb-Apr3 reports, we're 50% better than baseline, and still 2nd out of 6.

Baseline DAGGRE

PDM

Rank

All Data Average:

0.375

0.343

0.315

0.225

0.364

0.318

17%

2

w/o MultiChoice:

0.350

0.324

0.233

0.190

0.340

0.291

40%

2

Feb. Rpt. Average:

0.222

0.208

0.093

0.079

0.274

0.137

82%

2

Mar. Rpt. Average:

0.484

0.480

0.424

0.401

0.528

0.444

13%

2

Apr.3 Rpt. Average:

0.351

0.307

0.179

0.188

0.304

0.275

65%

1

Feb-Mar-Apr3 Average:

0.355

0.324

0.213

0.211

0.344

0.285

50%

2

  All teams (including us) are checking the numbers, so this result could change, but wow! Keep it up!   Resolutions are listed below. They include 10 unofficial (DAGGRE-only) questions. We expect another 7 questions to resolve later this week. We'll post all these results to the blog over the next week or so.   New Engine: Around April 13 we plan to replace the core calculation engine with a faster, more robust one. We will replay the entire trade history from scratch and thereby fix several scoring issues that have accumulated. Scores will change some. Stay tuned.  

Follow us:     Blog – http://blog.daggre.org    Twitter – https://twitter.com/#!/DAGGRE_    

DAGGRE Questions Resolving by early April

Q.140    IFPID #1062 - Europe Brent Crude FOB - is resolved as "b" / "no" Q.182    IFPID #1097 – Tunisia State of Emergency – is resolved as “a” / “yes”

This was a very close thing only announced on the day of. IARPA delayed resolution until they could confirm in-country news sources, and verify that it met the US timezone deadline.

Q.186    IFPID #1101 - Laurent Lamothe - is resolved as "b" / "No, but he will remain the nominee"

The following IARPA Test & Evaluation (T&E) all resolved “no”:

Q.107    IFPID #1035 - UNSC Iran Resolution

Q.123    IFPID #1045 - Saif Gaddafi Trial

Q.133    IFPID #1055 - North Korea Nuclear device

Q.136    IFPID #1058 - Egypt Israel Peace Treaty

Q.137    IFPID #1059 - Kim Jong-un

Q.147    IFPID #1063 - Taliban Negotiations

Q.148    IFPID #1064 - Yousaf Raza Gillani

Q.151    IFPID #1067 - Traian Basescu

Q.152    IFPID #1068 - UNSC Syria Resolution

Q.153    IFPID #1069 - South Korea Iran Oil

Q.155    IFPID #1071 - Iran U.S. nuclear talks

Q.157    IFPID #1073 - Hungary IMF Loan

Q.160    IFPID #1076 - Tareq al-Hashemi

Q.170    IFPID #1085 - UNSC Haiti Force Reduction

Q.173    IFPID #1088 - Japan Parliamentary Elections

Q.176    IFPID #1091 - Japan S&P downgrade

Q.177    IFPID #1092 - Myanmar Political Prisoners

Q.181    IFPID #1096 - Syrian Civil War

Q.184    IFPID #1099 - Al-Saadi Gaddafi Extradition

Q.189    IFPID #1103 - Sudan Oil Transit Fees

Q.190    IFPID #1104 - Jaar Zinjibar

The following DAGGRE questions all resolved “yes”:

Q.46    Will Hugo Chavez still hold the title President of Venezuela as of 1 April 2012?

The following DAGGRE questions all resolved “no”:

Q.6    Will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 2 new actual or suspected cases of the Ebola virus anywhere in the world between 1 August 2011 and 1 April 2012?

Q.13    Before 1 April 2012, will either the Knesset or the Israeli president officially call for a new national election for Israel’s Knesset?

Q.41    Will the Nikkei 225 index finish trading on 1 April 2012 at or above 11,000?

Q.45    Will Iran successfully detonate a nuclear weapon, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater, before 1 April 2012?

Q.47    Will at least one country newly and officially declare that they possess nuclear weapons before 1 April 2012?

Q.48    Will China conduct an overt [previously announced] military or naval exercise in the South China Sea at any point between 1 September 2011 and 1 April 2012?

Q.50    Will there be an ‘authorized strength’ of more than 11000 military and civilian police personnel as part of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) as of 1 April 2012?

Q.65    Will the North Korean (DPRK) military be reported as occupying, invading, or firing weapons on South Korean troops, citizens, or territory at any point before 1 April 2012?

Q.145    Will Iran successfully test-fire a ballistic missile between 13 January 2012 and 1 April 2012?