The following 22 official IARPA questions resolved this weekend.  (IARPA questions are visible only to US participants. Stand by for the resolution of non-IARPA questions.)    They all resolved “No”.

I’ll just post quick resolution notes and scores, and try to clean it up later.

UNSC Iran Resolution  - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Saif Gaddafi Trial - is resolved as “b” / “no”
North Korea Nuclear device - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Egypt Israel Peace Treaty - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Kim Jong-un - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Taliban Negotiations - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Yousaf Raza Gillani - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Traian Basescu - is resolved as “b” / “no”
UNSC Syria Resolution - is resolved as “b” / “no”
South Korea Iran Oil - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Iran U.S. nuclear talks - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Hungary IMF Loan - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Tareq al-Hashemi - is resolved as “b” / “no”
UNSC Haiti Force Reduction - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Japan Parliamentary Elections - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Japan S&P downgrade - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Myanmar Political Prisoners - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Syrian Civil War  - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Al-Saadi Gaddafi Extradition - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Laurent Lamothe - is resolved as “b” / “No, but he will remain the nominee”
Sudan Oil Transit Fees - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Jaar Zinjibar - is resolved as “b” / “no”

Brier Scores:

	Brier Score	#Days	Resolution
107	0.563	132	0
123	0.2658	91	0
133	0.0172	83	0
136	0.0216	83	0
137	0.033	82	0
147	0.228	69	0
148	0.1018	68	0
151	0.0576	68	0
152	0.3098	69	0
153	0.3428	69	0
155	0.0634	62	0
157	0.1286	62	0
160	0.0554	62	0
170	0.0616	41	0
173	0.0794	39	0
176	0.0426	40	0
177	0.0888	41	0
181	0.431	41	0
184	0.0208	27	0
186	0.0788	27	0
189	0.142	27	0
190	0.0344	27	0
Average:	0.1439727273

The outlier is #107 on the UN Iran Resolution. It’s by far the oldest question, and the only one to do worse than a coin toss.  But there were 6 questions with Brier Scores worse than 0.2. As you can see below, on Q.107 the problem was that it took a long time to figure out what was happening.  Certainly the age was a factor. It went live Nov. 22, when our participation was very low.  Participation didn’t really start to pick up until February, Day 150. In the end we got purchase on this one about 60 days out.

Update:Snapshot of all Questions