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The following 22 official IARPA questions resolved this weekend.  (IARPA questions are visible only to US participants. Stand by for the resolution of non-IARPA questions.)    They all resolved “No”.

I’ll just post quick resolution notes and scores, and try to clean it up later.

UNSC Iran Resolution  - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Saif Gaddafi Trial - is resolved as “b” / “no”
North Korea Nuclear device - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Egypt Israel Peace Treaty - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Kim Jong-un - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Taliban Negotiations - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Yousaf Raza Gillani - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Traian Basescu - is resolved as “b” / “no”
UNSC Syria Resolution - is resolved as “b” / “no”
South Korea Iran Oil - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Iran U.S. nuclear talks - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Hungary IMF Loan - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Tareq al-Hashemi - is resolved as “b” / “no”
UNSC Haiti Force Reduction - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Japan Parliamentary Elections - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Japan S&P downgrade - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Myanmar Political Prisoners - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Syrian Civil War  - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Al-Saadi Gaddafi Extradition - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Laurent Lamothe - is resolved as “b” / “No, but he will remain the nominee”
Sudan Oil Transit Fees - is resolved as “b” / “no”
Jaar Zinjibar - is resolved as “b” / “no”

Brier Scores:

Brier Score #Days Resolution
107 0.563 132 0
123 0.2658 91 0
133 0.0172 83 0
136 0.0216 83 0
137 0.033 82 0
147 0.228 69 0
148 0.1018 68 0
151 0.0576 68 0
152 0.3098 69 0
153 0.3428 69 0
155 0.0634 62 0
157 0.1286 62 0
160 0.0554 62 0
170 0.0616 41 0
173 0.0794 39 0
176 0.0426 40 0
177 0.0888 41 0
181 0.431 41 0
184 0.0208 27 0
186 0.0788 27 0
189 0.142 27 0
190 0.0344 27 0
 Average: 0.1439727273

The outlier is #107 on the UN Iran Resolution. It’s by far the oldest question, and the only one to do worse than a coin toss.  But there were 6 questions with Brier Scores worse than 0.2. As you can see below, on Q.107 the problem was that it took a long time to figure out what was happening.  Certainly the age was a factor. It went live Nov. 22, when our participation was very low.  Participation didn’t really start to pick up until February, Day 150. In the end we got purchase on this one about 60 days out.

Update:Snapshot of all Questions