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Q.94 (IFP #10771024) on Wade‘s re-election in Senegal resolved “no”.  This one has been out there since Oct. 4, with wild trading for the last few months.

Edit history for Wade, showing four timescales: entire history, final 30 days, final 7 days, and final 24 hours.

DAGGRE participants were uncertain and inactive for nearly 3 months, then initially favored and gradually disfavored Wade. But once people were active, the variability was quite high.

The average daily Brier score is below.  At 0.58, it’s slightly worse than just saying “50%” the whole time. But possibly it reflects real changes in events.  The question will be whether other teams were able to forecast the “no” sooner than we were.

Wade question. Average Daily Brier score is 0.58.

This question had many comments over time:

Usernames truncated.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17508098 Wade admitted defeat to Macky Sall in the run-off election.  rz— 17 hours ago

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/13/senegal-presidential-election-abdoulaye-wade?newsfeed=true It looks like a lot of people are choosing Macky Sall as the main opposition to Wade. The article doesn’t really say whether other members of opposition parties are doing so but I think it’s mainly referring to voters. rz — 6 days ago

He has to abide by the laws in which he has established…it’s part of the process. tr — 2 weeks ago

He voted on the law which limited the amount of term held “Wade himself who had revised the law to impose a maximum two-term limit.” Yet, he wants a third term. No wonder people are booing him and voting against him. How can they trust someone who doesn’t even follow his own laws?  Ra — 3 weeks ago

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/01/abdoulaye-wade-senegal-election-results?newsfeed=true Wade only got about 35% of the vote instead of the required 50%. While it is a sizeable amount still and his protege Sall got only about 26%, some of those on the poll are those who have fallen out of Wade’s favor and are likely to unite behind Sall. Wade was also heckled instead of cheered as was the case before. The people there are keenly aware of his violating his own rule to impose a two term limit. rz — 3 weeks ago

I can only assume that you read the title of the article and nothing else.  QB — 3 weeks ago

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Senegals-Wade-Confident-of-a-Reelection-Win-140644453.html I’m still skeptical though.  Ni — 3 weeks ago

Due to popularity of Wade, it is not looking so good.  sn — 3 weeks ago

“Mr Sall, who is running for the first time, told the BBC that it would be “easy” to win in the second round, as he expected all opposition supporters to unite behind him.” – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17176798 About what I expected would happen if Wade was dragged into a run-off. Anyone But Wade will be the people’s battle cry.  QB — 4 weeks ago

We are changing the estimated settlement date to 9:00am ET 30 March 2012 in expectation of a possible run-off.  daggre_admin — 4 weeks ago

Looks like the old man finally conceded that there will be a run-off. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17189318  Ka — 4 weeks ago

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/26/us-senegal-election-idUSTRE81O0TO20120226According to the Reuters article he has significant support in the rural voter bloc but many younger urban youth oppose him. Given that most protests have been peaceful and no coups have taken place in Senegal since the transition to democracy for the past 52 years, he will probably remain in power without any major opposition, unified or not. rz— 4 weeks ago

i DONT SEE HIM WINNING WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL CONTROVERSY, so much so that this question may have to be nullified.  ce — last month By doing a little resaerch it seems Wade has a bit of a spending problem during his tenue as President. This could be a good downfall to his success and among other things. Wade good have good supporters that sit in the justice Department that benefit from some of these allegations.  mo — last month

If the question is simply whether Wade will win re-election, then the chances are quite high (the Constitutional Council ruled in his favor, and his rivals thus far have struggled for forge a unified front against him). However, the chances of Wade controlling protesters and staying in office for the duration of his third term are much lower.  mw — last month

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/senegal-police-fire-tear-gas-in-5th-day-of-protests-ahead-of-contentious-presidential-poll/2012/02/19/gIQAp0GCNR_story.html…. he just “keeps on hanging on!”  Ka — last month

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gEHPv5umxAXAu0bbsqZoHsMOBmlQ?docId=CNG.24803825869086c5c2957f38c6bd3e8c.611The man seems quite unpopular today, and recent protests have become deadly. If he wins this, it will probably be only through deceit.  Ro — last month

The courts just decided Wade will be able to run a 3rd time. However, 86% already sounds a little high to me. Wade is quite unpopular at the moment. The only reason he stands a chance is because there may be too many competitors splitting the vote. Hopefully somebody will emerge after the first round so the people can unify to oust this man.  QB — last month